The 2 Most Vulnerable Incumbent In The House Is A Democrat, But Republicans Are Defending More Competitive SeatsThe Most Vulnerable Incumbent In The House Is A Democrat, But Republicans Are Defending More Competitive Seats In the face of a whirlwind presidential campaign and massive fundraising numbers coming out of marquee U.S. Senate contests, it’s easy to overlook what’s happening in the race for the U.S. House of Representatives. That might be because Democrats look like strong bets to hold onto power there. In fact, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast is most confident about the House, as the Deluxe version of our model gives Democrats a 95 in 100 shot at retaining control of the House, better than Joe Biden’s 88 in 100 chance of winning the presidency or the Democrats’ 74 in 100 chance of capturing the Senate.The Senate numbers are based on the Deluxe version of the model, which is the default version of our congressional forecasts this year. However, even if Democrats do hold onto ...